Managing natural resource systems like fisheries and forests often requires making choices under considerable uncertainty about how their ecological and socio-economic components behave and interact, and thus how they will respond to management.
The Uncertain, the Unexpected, and the Unknown
Here, ‘uncertainty’ includes the uncertain, the unexpected and the unknown. The ‘uncertain’ includes known, but poorly understood factors, for example, scarce data may result in poorly estimated parameters for management models. The ‘unexpected’ refers to unexpected events like sudden shifts in ocean or economic conditions. The ‘unknown’ means we just don’t know what we don’t know, so important factors can be left out of consideration during the decision making process.
Ignoring Uncertainty can have Serious Consequences
Each managed system is subject to some combination of these uncertainties; ignoring uncertainty can have serious consequences. For example, a fishery manager may choose the ‘best’ harvest rate using a fishery model with parameters estimated from historical fish abundance data. However, if these data do not extend far enough back to capture periodic, natural, shifts in fish abundance, the rate may be too high, leading to overharvest, a collapsed fishery, and a failed industry.
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